Why is Bitcoin price up today?
Bitcoin pared some of its weekly losses a day before Donald Trump’s keynote speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference.
Bitcoin
BTC
$67,215
pared a good portion of its weekly losses on July 26 as traders braced for Donald Trump’s keynote at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville while awaiting key United States inflation data for clues on the timing of interest rate cuts.
Traders are bracing for former President Donald Trump's keynote speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville on July 27. They also await key United States inflation data to gain insights into the Federal Reserve’s timeline for potential interest rate cuts.
Trump may announce a strategic Bitcoin reserve policy
Bitcoin’s price climbed 2.56% to around $67,480 on July 26, amounting to a 6.40% rebound from the weekly low of around $64,425 established a day prior. The recovery came in the hours leading up to Trump's speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference.
Social media speculates that Trump might pledge to establish a Bitcoin Reserve Policy in the US if he wins reelection in November. The potential of the world’s leading economy becoming a Bitcoin buyer is boosting the market's upside sentiment.
“Nobody wants to short Bitcoin into the weekend,” Markus Thielen, the CEO of 10x Research, noted, adding:
"He is undoubtedly eyeing the powerful crypto lobby, which has raised $150 million for the Crypto Super PAC."
Bitcoin's price has jumped by over 16.50% since the assassination attempt on Trump on July 13, which boosted his winning odds in the upcoming election.
US core inflation data may increase rate cut odds
Today's Bitcoin gains appear hours ahead of the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which is the Fed's preferred metric to gauge inflation.
The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 0.1% MoM in June, consistent with May’s increase. Annually, the PCE Price Index is projected to grow at 2.5%, just below the previous 2.6% but still above the Fed's 2% target.
These anticipated figures align with recent comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, whose mildly dovish stance has fueled expectations for two interest rate cuts by year-end.
Traders are now pricing in a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in September and gradually increasing bets on a similar move in December. Lower rates are typically bullish for non-yielding assets like stocks and crypto, a major reason for Bitcoin's recovery on July 26.
BTC price bounces from moving average support
Daily price chart technicals show BTC’s price jumped after testing its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) as support. This wave support has capped BTC’s downside attempts multiple times in recent history.
As of July 26, BTC’s price is eyeing the upper trendline of its prevailing descending channel pattern. This upside target is around $68,350, up approximately 2.50% from the current price levels.
Interestingly, climbing toward $68,350 may bring the classic inverse-head-and-shoulders (IH&S) setup into play, likely leading to further BTC gains in August.
An IH&S pattern is characterized by three troughs, with the middle trough, called the head, deeper than the other two, called the shoulders. These troughs have a common resistance called the neckline. As a rule, the IH&S pattern resolves when the price breaks decisively above the neckline.
Traders measure the IH&S breakout target by measuring the maximum distance between the head's deepest point and neckline and adding the output to the neckline level. Applying the same on the BTC chart brings its upside target to around $87,440 by October.
Related: Bitcoin traders warn BTC price can still dip to $62K or ‘even lower’
Conversely, a pullback from the neckline—which also means a retreat from the descending channel’s upper trendline—could invalidate the bullish setup. Instead, the price may fall back toward the channel’s lower trendline below $60,000 in August.
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